US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that Washington is "very close" to finalizing a trade deal with India, linking the progress of the negotiations to the Trump administration's decision to waive punishing tariffs on buyers of Russian oil. Speaking to reporters in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, a day before his scheduled two-day visit to India, Rubio offered the bluntest explanation yet for why the United States has held off on energy sanctions: "Geography is real."
"Very Close" to a Deal
"We're trying to finalise a trade deal with India right now. We're very close to doing that. That's one of the things we take into consideration when the President makes a decision about national security waivers and things of that nature," Rubio told reporters during the C5+1 ministerial meeting with Central Asian nations.
Rubio is scheduled to arrive in Mumbai on Tuesday, October 20, for a two-day visit — his second trip to India in nearly five months. He is expected to meet External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai and then travel to Jamnagar in Gujarat, home to the world's largest single-site oil refinery. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said last week that the first tranche of the India-US trade deal has been finalized and is now undergoing legal drafting.
"Geography Is Real": The Russia Oil Question
Asked about Washington's decision to waive sanctions on Russian oil and gas, Rubio said the United States had "had to waive sanctions over the past few months because of the impact on global supplies and prices." The waivers followed President Donald Trump's move to pause the most punitive provisions of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which he signed into law on September 18 and which was due to take effect on October 18.
The law had threatened tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude or gas — a list that includes India — and duties of up to 500% on Russian goods. Trump waived the tariff provisions citing national security. "Every country has a complex set of factors that it has to take into account," Rubio said. "Geography is real. For some countries, it's very difficult to acquire energy from alternative sources. That's not an excuse, but all of that has to be balanced when making foreign policy."
A day earlier, Rubio had acknowledged that while India has diversified its energy imports, it would be hard for New Delhi to "pivot" from Russian imports overnight: "It's still getting a substantial amount of energy from Russia because it's hard to pivot from one day to the next."
What the Trade Deal Looks Like
Under a framework announced in February 2026, the United States cut its reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and removed an additional 25% duty linked to India's purchases of Russian oil. In return, India committed to eliminating or reducing tariffs on American industrial goods and farm products, including tree nuts, fruit, soybean oil, wine, and spirits. Dairy access is reportedly the single biggest unresolved obstacle as the two sides push to close the first tranche.
Rubio's visit will test whether the tariff relief and the stalled energy sanctions can be converted into a signed agreement — and whether Washington's patience on Russian oil lasts once the ink is dry.
Watch: News18's video report on Rubio's India visit, the trade talks, and the Russian oil dispute.
Music in this post's reel: Kevin MacLeod - Lightless Dawn (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 3.0
Sources: NDTV Profit, Hindustan Times, Anadolu Agency