Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged that his government examined the "extreme tail risk" of US military action against Canada, calling the contingency planning "just risk management" in response to President Donald Trump's repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st American state.
Carney made the admission in an hour-long interview with The New York Times on September 23, 2026, conducted in New York during the UN General Assembly. His remarks, and the BBC's follow-up reporting in early October that Canada has war-gamed a hypothetical American attack, have intensified an already fraught dispute between the two longtime allies over trade, sovereignty, and defense.
The admission
"I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk," Carney told the Times. "That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to."
The BBC reported in early October that Canadian military planners have modeled a hypothetical US attack. According to reporting citing the Globe and Mail, the Canadian model shows American forces rapidly overwhelming key positions within a week, potentially forcing Canadian troops toward guerrilla-style resistance and appeals for help from France and Britain. The BBC stressed that the plans are hypothetical — not evidence that Washington is preparing an invasion — and military experts called an actual invasion a "long shot," citing deep joint defense cooperation through NATO and NORAD.
In the same interview, Carney said he maintains a direct channel with Trump: "From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues. He's direct. I'm direct."
The 51st-state rhetoric
Trump has repeatedly said Canada should become the 51st US state, telling supporters that many Canadians "would love to be our beautiful, precious 51st state" and arguing they rely on the United States for security. He has called Carney "Governor" to his face, including at an Oval Office meeting, posted a Truth Social hockey cartoon of himself standing over Carney captioned "Get up, governor," and — according to multiple reports — signed an order renaming Lake Ontario "Lake America."
The White House, in a statement to the BBC, said: "President Trump has done more than anyone to protect the great people of Canada." In 2025, Trump said using force against Canada was "highly unlikely," adding that he would instead continue exerting economic pressure to achieve political aims.
Tariffs and retaliation
The dispute has a hard economic edge. The United States began collecting 50% duties on roughly C$28 billion of Canadian goods on August 22, 2026, under Section 338 of the US Tariff Act of 1930, and has threatened further 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, parts, and steel from January. Canada answered with counter-tariffs effective September 8: tiered rates of 15%, 25%, and 50% on C$27.6 billion (about $20 billion USD) of American goods across more than 700 tariff lines, targeting steel, aluminum, dairy, furniture, electronics, and clothing.
Trump responded by directing US agencies to bar Canadian products from federal procurement. A January 2026 Leger poll, taken after the US captured Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, found that over 30% of Canadians believed a US invasion was likely — a figure the BBC cited as evidence of how seriously the rhetoric is being taken north of the border.
Canada's decoupling moves
Carney's government has moved to reduce Canada's dependence on the United States. Ottawa is reviewing its order of 88 F-35 fighter jets, with a possible pivot to Sweden's Gripen, and is funding a sovereign satellite system to cut reliance on Starlink. Roughly a week before the Times interview, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada an associate member of the EU.
The sovereignty question is also flaring domestically. On October 12, Carney urged Alberta to remain in Canada ahead of an October 19 vote on whether the province should begin the process of holding a referendum on separation. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who supports remaining, said recent polling put separation support at roughly 22% — "still too high for my liking" — while separatist leader Keith Wilson asked: "What protects us when Ottawa turns against Alberta again?"
Whether Carney's contingency planning was prudent risk management or an extraordinary overreaction is now itself a matter of dispute — between Ottawa and Washington, and within Canada. What is not in dispute is that the relationship between the two closest of allies has entered territory neither capital would have imagined a few years ago.
Music in this post's reel: Kevin MacLeod - Hitman (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 3.0
Sources
- BBC: Why Canada is preparing for a (longshot) US invasion
- AP: Canadian Prime Minister Carney makes case for Canadian unity as Alberta referendum nears
- Policy-Wire: Fact check — Did Canada's Mark Carney say he was prepared for US invasion?
- Wall Street Journal: Carney puts oil pipeline at center of bid to keep Alberta in Canada