Five days after Israelis went to the polls, the country still has no clear next government. The October 27 election left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats and the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot with 48 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, with a record 19 seats held by Arab-led parties. With 61 seats needed for a majority, the question now dominating Israeli politics is simple and unresolved: who gets the first shot at forming a government, and who can actually reach 61?
The numbers that produced the deadlock
Israel's Central Elections Committee results put Netanyahu's Likud as the largest single party, with Yashar second at 21 seats. But neither bloc commands a majority on its own. The opposition parties opposed to Netanyahu collectively hold 67 seats when Arab-led parties are counted, yet only 48 of those belong to Jewish-majority parties, and deep ideological divisions remain over issues including ultra-Orthodox military conscription and a state commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023 attacks.
Prediction markets have leaned toward Eisenkot: traders on Kalshi gave him a 52 percent chance of becoming prime minister, against 28 percent for Netanyahu and 10 percent for former prime minister Naftali Bennett, while Polymarket put Eisenkot at 58 percent and Netanyahu at 27 percent. Polls, by contrast, showed neither bloc with a clear path to 61 seats, a gap analysts attribute to the difference between asking voters who they support and asking traders who will actually form a government.
The paths to a government
One path is a minority government led by Eisenkot, relying on outside support from Arab parties. Ahmad Tibi, head of the Joint Arab List's parliamentary bloc, has said Arab lawmakers are prepared to support an alternative administration without joining it. Another path runs through ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, some of whom have expressed disillusionment with their alliance with Netanyahu, though any deal with them would require concessions on draft exemptions that Eisenkot's camp campaigned against.
A third possibility is a broad unity arrangement between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, possibly involving a rotation as prime minister, an option that has been discussed publicly as both blocs fall short. A fourth is another election, an outcome Netanyahu's critics accuse him of seeking in order to remain as caretaker prime minister, a charge his camp has not accepted. The election chief has said the results will stand even if an interference probe is substantiated, after Likud questioned the outcome without providing evidence.
What happens next
Final results were due to be submitted on November 4, after which President Isaac Herzog must nominate a candidate to attempt to form a government. That nominee, most likely Eisenkot if the opposition can agree on him, would then face weeks of coalition talks. Until a candidate secures 61 seats, Israel remains in political limbo, with a caretaker government, a looming decision on Iran policy, and a public that turned out at 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999, still waiting to learn who will lead it.
Takeaway: The election answered who Israel voted against more clearly than who will govern. Eisenkot leads the race to replace Netanyahu, but the arithmetic says he cannot do it without partners his own campaign promises complicate, and that tension will decide the next government.
Watch: Eisenkot's warning as election results spark a government-formation crisis in Israel
Music in this post's reel: Kevin MacLeod - Lightless Dawn (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 3.0
Sources: The Times of Israel, The Times of Israel on prediction markets, Ynetnews, The Siasat.