The United States and Israel have drawn up detailed plans for renewed military strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections, the New York Times reported on October 22, citing US officials and others briefed on the deliberations. The planned "short but intensive operation" would hit Iranian energy sites, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals — a dramatic escalation that comes as the Gulf already burns with tanker fires, mine strikes and dueling ultimatums.
What the plans include
According to the Times, both countries' militaries have stepped up exercises in recent weeks, including flyovers of Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers. Separately, Axios reported that dozens of Israeli Air Force jets flew as far as the Iranian border on Monday — the same day US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Times noted that Israel's own election, scheduled for October 27, complicates the timing.
Trump: "Something will happen, fairly soon"
Before boarding Air Force One on the night of October 21, Trump told reporters the US is "not negotiating with" Tehran, adding: "Something one way or another will happen, fairly soon… Most people seem to think it's after the election." White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly added that the United States "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections." At an October 21 election rally, Netanyahu struck an even harder line, declaring that "the only way to end this" is "by toppling this regime."
Tehran warns of a wider war
Iran has vowed retaliation. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi warned that the United States has the "Mother of All Bombs," but Iran would show it the "Father of All Bombs" — "something new," he said. On October 22, the IRGC Navy said four vessels allegedly involved in illegal oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf were hit and caught fire, while three more vessels struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the Kuwait-flagged tanker M/T Al Dasma was hit by a projectile in the strait — 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, per UKMTO — though all 21 crew were reported safe.
Markets feel the heat
Brent crude hovered around $110 a barrel on October 22, and Goldman Sachs warned a prolonged Gulf shortfall could push it to $140 in early 2027. Kpler data showed only about 12.6 million barrels a day flowing through Hormuz on October 13, down from 15 million at the end of September and 17 million before the crisis; IMF PortWatch logged just 4 transits on October 18 against a pre-crisis baseline of 85 a day.
Bottom line: Washington and Jerusalem have a plan, a date range and rehearsed drills — and Tehran is answering with ships on fire. Everything now hinges on what happens after November 3.
🎬 Watch: Times Now — "Iran's 'Father of All Bombs' Counter to Trump, Israel's Threat of Fresh Attack After US Midterms" — a report on the NYT strike plans, the 72-hour operation, Iraq exercises and the midterm timing.
Music in this post's reel: Kevin MacLeod - Hitman (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 3.0.