President Donald Trump is preemptively blaming fellow Republicans for Ken Paxton's struggles in the Texas Senate race, writing on Truth Social on Thursday that if Paxton loses to Democrat James Talarico, the fault will lie with Senator John Cornyn and strategist Karl Rove.
What Trump said
In a lengthy post, Trump accused Cornyn and Rove of doing "everything possible" to make it harder for Paxton to beat Talarico, calling them "WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks" who have opposed him his entire career. He branded Rove a "Super RINO" and said he "shouldn't be allowed to spew his jealousy on FoxNews," adding that if Paxton loses, "it will be because of" the two men.
Trump called Paxton "the Greatest Attorney General in the History of Texas," labeled Talarico "the ANTITHESIS of Texas Values" and "James TalaFREAKO," and urged "all of those who supported Senator John Cornyn to UNITE, and immediately switch your support to Ken Paxton." He also boasted he is the "ALL TIME WINNER in the History of Texas."
Asked later on Newsmax whether he would regret the endorsement if Paxton loses, Trump answered: "No, because I think Cornyn would've lost."
The Texas Senate race
The general election is Tuesday, November 3, with early voting beginning Monday, October 19. With Trump's backing, Paxton ousted four-term incumbent Cornyn in the May Republican primary runoff; Talarico is the Democratic nominee, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot.
Most public polls over the past two months show Talarico with a narrow lead: a Marist poll of likely voters released October 14 put Talarico at 47 percent to Paxton's 45 percent, and the RealClearPolling average has Talarico at 48.1 percent to Paxton's 45.1 percent, though several polls show a statistical tie. Forecasters at Decision Desk HQ give Talarico a 56 percent chance of victory, and the Cook Political Report moved the race to "Toss up" in August.
Paxton carries heavy baggage: he was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 over corruption, bribery and abuse-of-power accusations before being acquitted by the state Senate, his wife filed for divorce last year, and leaked audio recently showed him privately blaming Trump for his campaign's troubles. Talarico raised a record $64 million in the third quarter of 2026 and more than $134 million in total, while Paxton raised $18 million in the quarter and announced a $20 million ad buy.
Other Republicans have voiced doubts too. Senator Thom Tillis called endorsing Paxton over Cornyn a "colossal mistake," and Rove warned that Paxton was a "damaged candidate" who would invite a nine-figure Democratic spending wave in Texas. Cornyn has refused to endorse Paxton since losing the runoff, though he has not endorsed Talarico either.
Why it matters for the Senate
The seat could decide control of the U.S. Senate, and no Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994 or taken a Texas Senate seat since 1988. Trump's post is widely read as blame-preparation for a race his own party establishment warned him was a gamble.
Music in this post's reel: Kevin MacLeod - Lightless Dawn (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 3.0
Sources: Politico (via DNYUZ), Washington Examiner, USA Today, CNBC (via Metapress).