Iran believes a renewed US-Israeli attack could begin as early as next week, according to a new report citing senior Iranian officials, while the White House insists no strike is planned before America's midterm elections. The conflicting signals come as US warships stream toward the Middle East and Israel heads into a knife-edge election on October 27.
What Tehran's assessment says
Drop Site News, citing a senior Iranian official, reports that Tehran's internal intelligence assessment puts a high likelihood on large-scale bombing beginning before Tuesday's Israeli elections. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said Israel would be tasked with firing the first shots, aimed at destroying Iran's newly deployed air defense systems to open the way for American bombers.
The United States, the official said, would likely focus on Iran's southern defenses along the Strait of Hormuz and could attempt to seize one of the islands off the Iranian mainland after heavy bombing. The official also claimed President Donald Trump may seek a "token" attack on one of Iran's underground nuclear sites, such as Pickaxe Mountain, and then present it as a decisive blow. "Trump has sat on Iran's proposed package for ending the war, and negotiations have stalled," the official said.
The White House denial, and a different timeline
The White House pushed back directly. "The United States will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections," Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement to Drop Site. Separately, a person briefed on US and Israeli war planning told NPR that the two countries are preparing plans for a possible attack in early November, after the November 3 US midterms, and that Israel had initially planned to strike in mid-October before Trump objected.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state media that Tehran is ready for either outcome: "We are just as prepared for diplomacy as we are for war," adding that "any scenario is conceivable, including the possibility of an attack by the US and Israel."
Forces on the move
The military buildup is visible. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the Middle East with roughly 10,000 additional sailors and Marines, and could reach the region by the end of next week. They will join the USS George H.W. Bush and USS George Washington, already in the Arabian Sea. A US official told Drop Site that US Central Command, led by Gen. Bradley Cooper, is "putting all the pieces into place to renew major combat operations."
The warnings are already rippling outward. The US State Department is reducing staffing at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and has ordered non-emergency personnel out of facilities in Saudi Arabia, following intelligence assessments of advanced Iranian plots against American personnel.
Why this moment is so dangerous
The war that began on February 28, when the US and Israel launched strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader and senior officials, never produced a lasting ceasefire. The two sides have since traded strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which much of the world's oil moves, with Iran blocking the channel and the US blockading Iranian ports and oil shipments. With Israeli voters going to the polls on Tuesday and American voters a week later, both leaders face political clocks that analysts say could either restrain or accelerate a decision.
Takeaway: Tehran expects war within days, Washington denies it before the midterms, and the warships are moving anyway. The gap between those two stories is where the danger lies.
Watch: ILTV reports on the Iran war threat exploding days before Israel's election.
Music in this post's reel: Kevin MacLeod - Movement Proposition (incompetech.com), licensed under CC BY 3.0
Sources: The Times of India, NPR, Black Star News.