Ethiopia's federal forces and allied militiamen have advanced to within striking distance of Mekelle, the capital of the northern Tigray region, as fears grow that renewed fighting between the government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) could spill into a wider regional war.
Federal Troops Advance Toward Mekelle
Banks and shops in Mekelle were closed on Friday as the Ethiopian National Defence Force and allied militiamen approached the city, two residents told Reuters. The pro-government Tigray Peace Forces militia said on Facebook it had captured the town of Milazat, about 20 km (12 miles) southeast of Mekelle, while one resident said government-aligned fighters were now within 30 km of the city.
The advance marks the worst escalation of violence in Ethiopia since the end of the 2020–2022 civil war, which killed hundreds of thousands of people. Combat erupted last week between a rebel alliance led by the TPLF and troops loyal to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal government.
TPLF chairperson Debretsion Gebremichael acknowledged on Thursday that federal forces had occupied parts of the region but vowed his forces would counter-attack "in due course". "We should ensure that Tigray is their graveyard, not their playground," he said. Ahead of the fighting, the TPLF formed an alliance with six other Ethiopian armed groups that say they aim to overthrow Abiy's government.
Embassy Closure Deepens Ethiopia-Eritrea Rift
On Thursday, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea "in response to Eritrea's direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence" and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours. Eritrea responded by severing all diplomatic ties with its neighbour.
The rupture is a striking reversal: Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia's federal government against the TPLF during the 2020–2022 war. The two countries fought a border war from 1998–2000 and only restored diplomatic relations in 2018. Relations have soured partly over landlocked Ethiopia's public insistence that sea access is vital for its security — Eritrea fears Addis Ababa will try to seize its Assab port by force, while Abiy says Ethiopia intends to secure sea access through peaceful means.
Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting the opposition alliance — an allegation all three deny. On Thursday, Ethiopia expelled an Egyptian diplomat, prompting Cairo to expel an Ethiopian embassy counsellor in return.
Blasts Heard in Addis Ababa
Explosions were heard late Wednesday night in Addis Ababa, in what a source linked to the opposition alliance said were drone attacks targeting the ENDF headquarters and other sites. If confirmed, it would be the first known drone attack by anti-government forces on the capital, hundreds of kilometres from the northern front lines. Earlier this week, a drone strike damaged Tigrai TV's headquarters in Mekelle, according to Al Jazeera.
Analysts fear the conflict could spread beyond Ethiopia's borders: Tigray borders Eritrea to the north and Sudan — itself mired in a more than three-year civil war — to the west. The African Union Commission has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise "maximum restraint" and resolve differences through dialogue.
What Happens Next
The next test is whether federal forces push into Mekelle itself or pause to consolidate. The TPLF's threat of a counter-attack, the severed diplomatic ties with Eritrea, and the tit-for-tat diplomat expulsions with Egypt all point to a crisis rapidly taking on a regional dimension.