Israeli Arab voters could decide Benjamin Netanyahu's political fate in the October 27 parliamentary election, with new polls projecting a record surge in Arab turnout that may hand Arab parties up to 15 of the Knesset's 120 seats — enough to tip the balance against Israel's longest-serving prime minister.
Election Day on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 will be Israel's first vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack, and it is widely framed as a referendum on Netanyahu. The latest polling averages give his right-religious bloc 54 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's center-opposition bloc 50 — neither reaches the 61 needed for a majority without the Arab parties, who poll at a combined 14 seats.
Tight polls, no path to 61 without Arab parties
Polls cited by Reuters put Eisenkot's bloc at 52 seats against Netanyahu's 50, with the two Arab lists — the United Arab List (Ra'am) led by Mansour Abbas, and the three-party Joint List (Hadash, Ta'al, Balad) — projected to win a combined 13 to 15 seats. A Kan poll reported that Arab turnout near 70 percent could deliver 13 Arab seats, up from 10 in the outgoing parliament.
If neither bloc reaches 61, deadlock could trigger fresh elections in 2027, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker — a scenario both sides are desperate to avoid.
Record turnout projected in Arab towns
Arab citizens, who make up about 21 percent of Israel's population, turned out at just 53 to 56 percent in the 2022 election, against roughly 70 percent nationally. This time, the Stat-Net Research Institute projects Arab turnout of 63 percent, while Joint List leader Ahmad Tibi has predicted up to 70 percent. Haaretz reports party estimates of 14 to 15 combined seats.
Campaign billboards across Arab villages carry a blunt message: "Our absence (last election) cost us. On October 27, we're all present."
What the Arab parties want
Abbas told Reuters that Ra'am can "ensure the formation of a new government of change" and wants "to replace the right-wing government... to end the wars and these policies, to stop the expansion of settlements." He placed a Jewish ex-police official second on his slate "as a message of partnership."
Tibi said his "top priority" is "getting rid of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir," offering the Joint List as a "preventive block" to back a change government from outside the coalition. Ra'am, unlike its rivals, is willing to join a government directly — as it did in 2021–2022.
Netanyahu's bloc pushes back
Eisenkot has ruled out relying on Arab parties, telling the Jerusalem Post "I do not see an Arab party that accepts my principles," and saying he will not align with any party that won't recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization or Israel as a Jewish state. Likud's campaign has answered with doctored images and AI-generated videos warning of a choice between "the Right or Palestine."
The Central Elections Committee has voted to bar both main Arab lists under Section 7A, backed by Likud and Otzma Yehudit petitions — with Supreme Court appeals pending. The Joint List says Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir want to discourage Arab voting "because they fear our ability to bring down the government."
The bottom line: after record violence in Arab towns (252 homicides in 2025, over 182 so far in 2026, per the Abraham Initiatives) and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's plan to "Judaize" areas around Nazareth, Arab anger at the government is at historic levels. One week out, Netanyahu's survival may come down to how many Arab voters show up on October 27.
Sources: Reuters | Business Standard | The Jerusalem Post | Haaretz
Watch: APT reports on how Arab voter turnout could decide Netanyahu's fate
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